Harare – “We need an Ecowas in southern Africa!”
That was the tweeted wail from prominent Zimbabwe lawyer Fadzayi Mahere this week as she and many Zimbabweans watched events up in the Gambia with envy.
Much as President Robert Mugabe is widely thought to have done in March 2008, Gambia’s ex-president Yahya Jammeh lost polls in his west African nation last month and then insisted on staying put.
What happened next was very different.
While Jammeh has been ostracised by regional body Ecowas (its forces and troops from Senegal and other Western nations are poised for action), SADC did no such thing nine years ago.
When it became clear that the Zimbabwean president was about to lose, he was allowed to stop announcing results and the country waited for five weeks for the outcome.
By then the clearly-doctored results gave opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai a margin that wasn’t enough for him to claim outright victory.
A second round of polling was called. Ahead of that round, Mugabe’s militia unleashed violence in the rural areas, killing up to 200 opposition supporters.
Tsvangirai pulled out. Mugabe claimed victory. SADC remonstrated – feebly – by elbowing Mugabe into a coalition with Tsvangirai in which the ageing president retained maximum control.
Here are some of the reasons Mugabe got away with what Jammeh hasn’t:
The Gambia’s opposition was united
This is quite likely the biggest factor. For the first time, Gambian opponents of Jammeh managed to rally behind a single candidate, Adama Barrow, in a coalition. “It emboldened the Gambian people because they knew that the opposition was serious about making a change,” says Jeffrey Smith, founding director of @VanguardAfrica.
Zimbabwe’s opposition was horribly fractured in 2008. The main Movement for Democratic Change party split acrimoniously in 2005 into the MDC-T, led by Tsvangirai and the MDC, led by Welshman Ncube. That inevitably meant a split opposition vote and a margin that was easier to massage.
The splitting isn’t over yet. In recent years, former vice president Joice Mujuru has also set up a party. In fact there are an unbelievable 48-plus opposition parties registered in Zimbabwe. Analysts predict that Mugabe will almost certainly win the next polls in 2018 unless the opposition unites.
Says Zimbabwean @Webster_IM: “The Ecowas & SADCs of this world help those who help themselves. Zimbabweans & their [opposition] are doing very little to help themselves.”
SADC is not the same as ECOWAS
Ecowas is standing firm against Jammeh in a way SADC certainly did not against Mugabe. There are several suggestions as to why this might be. One is that SADC has traditionally been led by loyal liberation-era leaders who are unwilling to see “one of their own” ousted. Zimbabwe’s @sure_kamhunga said: “SADC must use ECOWAS’s solution on leaders refusing the will of the people. No more massaging despotic egos in the name of brotherhood.”
Zimbabwe had the support of its powerful neighbour
Thabo Mbeki maintained that what he called loud diplomacy was “no diplomacy at all”. As Todd Moss of the Centre for Global Development told News24: “South Africa didn’t want to be seen as bullying a neighbour.”
Contrast South Africa’s treatment of Mugabe to Gambia’s neighbour-on-three-sides Senegal, which has already sent in troops. Football fans were quick to see the irony when Senegal also thrashed Zimbabwe’s Warriors team 2-0 at an AFCON Group B match at the Stade de Franceville in Gabon on Thursday evening. Echoing the tweets of many, @Kajeey_ tweeted from Kenya: “#Senegal really hates dictators. Stabilizing the #Gambia at the same time teaching #Zimbabwe a lesson at the ongoing #AFCON2017.”
And South Africa is still shoring up Mugabe, if you agree with this Human Rights Watch report from a week ago.
Kept in the public eye
Foreign media attention on the Gambia was not confined to election day and a few days before, says @VanguardAfrica’s Smith. He told News24: “Over the past two years we’ve collectively been able to get unprecedented international attention on the Gambia. Tyrants like Jammeh… are able to get away with the crimes they do because the outside world just isn’t paying attention. [But] we were able to have that much-needed international lens on the country.”
Sure, Zimbabwe was frequently on the foreign pages well before 2008. But all too often, foreign editors wanted the white farmer story rather than the mounting rights abuses. That kind of blinkered coverage may have allowed the Mugabe government to get away with violence, rigging and a peaceful election day, at least in the eyes of some regional leaders.
So, is there any hope for Zimbabwe’s opposition ahead of 2018? Mugabe and his men are certainly watching events in the Gambia with interest: Higher Education Minister Jonathan Moyo has tweeted that the swearing-in of Barrow on foreign soil sets an “awfully terrible precedent”.
Will Zanu-PF draw lessons from what’s happening in the Gambia to make sure Jammeh’s humiliation can’t happen in Zimbabwe?
Or will Zimbabwe’s opposition and civic activists FINALLY unite?
We have likely less than 18 months to find out. – News24
If I am the one with a sick mind, please answer this: In a normal country; every citizen should stand an equal chance of rising to any position he chooses, including the Head of State; as long as they meet the requirements; have the resources and work hard to sell themselves. Would you say this is the case in Zim?
Why do Shonas tell us no Ndebele will ever be President in Zim, if its me with a sick mind; not them?
Why Mnangagwa to succeed Mugabe and not Mphoko? Not even John Nkomo previously?
In your hearts of hearts, do you really believe ZANU PF can ever elect a Matebeleland candidate to succeed Mugabe or even the MDC T electing Khuphe to succeed Tswangirayi?
Please, lets stop pretending and lying to each other.
We all are not children playing humpty dumpty here!!
You can blame SADC all you want but the truth is that it was Zimbabweans ourselves who created our own mess by electing the corrupt and murderous tyrant Mugabe then the incompetent Tsvangirai!
MDC did not lose the 2013 elections because the opposition was divided. They lost because Mugabe was able to blatantly rig the vote. SADC advised MDC not to take part in the 2013 elections without implementing the reforms first but Tsvangirai would not listen.
Not even one reform has been implemented and you talking of taking part in the 2018 elections. Zanu PF will rigged the vote and whether the opposition are united “come rain come sun shine” it will be irrelevant! Do not say you were not warned!
Are you blaming suffering for MDC’s failure to implement the reforms?
Jammeh was a tyrant and he ruled Gambia for 22 years. He is not Shona, of that I am certain.
Your tribal diatribe is a clear sign of sick mind. For all your hatred of Mugabe, you two have so much in common – a sick mind for a start!
Get your facts right!
It was none other than Archbishop Desmond Tutu who raised the alarm of tampering with the count when Mugabe failed to announce the result after three days and demanded that pressure should be brought to bear on Mugabe. It was none other than Tsvangirai who dismissed the warning and suggest that people must wait.
After a week and still no result, Tsvangirai finally cooped on that there was something fishy but it was too late, he did not do anything and the world did not want to take a lead.
In April 2008, before Zanu PF had announced the election results, Tsvangirai was already negotiating with Zanu PF on the formation of a GNU. So it was not SADC but MDC who had wanted a GNU from the word go.
The fact that not even one reform was implemented during the five years of the GNU was not SADC’s fault but MDC.
If Zimbabwe had Gambia’s Barrow and and not the blundering Tsvangirai we would not be in this mess!
But if you Shonas continue to vote for Mugabe and ZANU PF, as you have just done in Bikita; what should SADC do about your foolishness? This is totally different from what is happening in West Africa.
SADC advised your Morgan Tswangirayi to insist on reforms and not participate in the 2913 elections; he never listened, but instead chose to defy them and participated – so whose problem is that?
SADC advised that Welshman be recognised as a Principal so there could be a unity of purpose in the GNU in resolving the political problems. Tswangirayi instead chose to defy them and continued to drink Monday teas and buscuits with Mugabe without Welshman.
I need to remind you that when Joshua Nkomo was pressured to abandon the armed struggle to join and give legitimacy to the internal settlement; he refused and stated categorically that he was not coming back to Rhodesia without Robert Mugabe; notwithstanding the fact that they both fought on two opposing camps. Had he agreed, you can rest assured Mugabe and his ZANLA would have fizzled into thin air; since Machel was already tired of him. Never forget that he initially wasnt even interested in the Lancaster House talks.
Given SADC’s backing, Tswangirayi could have equally done the same with Welshman, and sabotaged Mugabe’s chicannery. Zim would probably be a different story today.
Zimbabweans are the problem; not SADC!!
…..why cant you?
Why should South Africa sacrifice for a nation of tribalists? Can you give us one good reason why Mnangagwa is being considered ahead of Mphoko to succeed Robert Mugabe? Give us a good reason why the MDC-T now has three VPs?
You are now a nation of the abnormal; where the abnormal is normalised such that you grow to accept it as normal and see nothing wrong with it. Nobody even questions these things and the opposition also mimics the same. Mainstream media also sings from the same hymn book.
In many civilised progressive democratic countries; these tribally inspired Deputy musical chairs, that are seen as normal in Zim would surely raise eyebrows. But not so in Shona dominated Zim.
This is a nation that sees nothing wrong with having two Deputy Presidents for a 4 billion dollar economy. Yet countries with ten fold economy sizes and numerous languages only have one. Nigeria is even a Federal State, but still it has one VP.
Please leave SA alone and stew alone in the shit that you created for yourselves, because of tribalism. You want to behave as if the tribal wars of the past only happened in Zim – yet they were all over Africa; indeed the whole world and many nations have since moved on from then. Why cany you??
Shonas are the problem in Zim politics. The Gambia doesnt have Shonas. Tribalism rules Zim politics and where a majority is the one culpable of driving tribal politics in any nation; expect chaos and stagnation. Zim is no exception!!
South Africa has everything to gain economically and socially by not acting on the deplorable situation in Zimbabwe. They could have stood their ground and with the suffering masses but chose to put South African economic interests first. A hard lesson for the region and Zim opposition parties. I agree God helps those that help themselves. The Gambian lesson is timely and offers Zim opposition opportunity to emulate and act accordingly. Zimbabweans want to celebrate too in 2018!
The opposition must unite, come rain, shine..
We have a culture on the continent to respect our elders and perhaps this respect is taken to far even when the elders make mistakes we just carry on respecting them
We live in the 21st century -things have to change where one should question why should elders be respected when they are making big mistakes when the cost is affecting peoples lives
Well said in one sentence “We need an an Ecowas in Southern Africa
Iwe SADC you bettter be reading this article