As the coronavirus epidemic burns through the US and Europe, the doubters who initially rejected calls for a global lockdown, arguing that “the cure mustn’t be worse than the disease,” are slowly losing their voice.

In early March, Donald Trump dismissed calls for a US lockdown, saying the country doesn’t shut down for seasonal flu (which kills 37,000 Americans every year), so why do it for a virus that had caused just 22 deaths at that stage?.

The thinking was: let the disease run its course and, sure, a few people will get sick, but it’s better than closing businesses. And it’s true that at this point, Covid-19 has affected only 1,26-million people – fewer than 0.1% of the world’s population. Equally, the 70,000 deaths so far are

In SA, we’ve seen the cases growing, though far slower than expected. On Sunday, health minister Zweli Mkhize announced that SA had 1,655 confirmed cases, along with 11 deaths. The numbers are perplexing: over the past week, SA has added only 375 new confirmed cases – an average increase of 3.7% a day. That’s far below the 27% daily increase from March 21 to March 24. But it seems unlikely this good fortune can continue.

Last week Mkhize described it as “the calm before a heavy and devastating storm.” The country is bracing for it. That’s one reason why President Cyril Ramaphosa mustn’t be swayed by those arguing that shutting restaurants and closing businesses is worse than letting the disease rip through the country unchecked.

Every day that the lockdown continues, small businesses are going bust – something SA can ill afford. But we have no choice. The point is, even if you ignore the actual lives that could be lost, the lockdown isn’t making the economic damage worse – it’s mitigating that fallout.