The coronavirus pandemic is likely to be a challenge for years to come even with a vaccine, according to pharmaceutical and public-health experts.
While a vaccine will provide some measure of protection to societies around the globe, the virus is likely to flare up from time to time and be constantly battled, much like the flu and other pathogens.
“We know this virus is not going away any time soon. It’s established itself and is going to keep on transmitting wherever it’s able to do so,” Soumya Swaminathan, chief scientist for the World Health Organization, at the “How Covid-19 Is Reshaping the Global Healthcare Ecosystem” event hosted by Bloomberg Prognosis. “We know we have to live with this.”
Humanity’s record against viruses is poor. Only one virus has been fully driven out of existence in humans – smallpox. The rest are managed, with brushfires stomped out when they flare up.
“I think what’s realistic to expect is that with a combination of drugs and vaccines we can get to a stable place where the pandemic is manageable,” said Novartis Chief Executive Officer Vas Narasimhan. He called the actual elimination of the virus “unlikely.”
“We know this virus is not going away any time soon. It’s established itself and is going to keep on transmitting wherever it’s able to do so. We know we have to live with this.” Chief Scientist @WHO @doctorsoumya tells @business’ @johnfraher #BloombergPrognosis pic.twitter.com/voPkGMM0IJ
— Bloomberg Live (@BloombergLive) August 13, 2020.
There are 29 different vaccines in human trials around the world, according to a World Health Organization report released Thursday. More than 20 million people have been confirmed infected around the globe, with at least 751,000 killed by the virus.
While the rush to rapidly test vaccines has potentially cut years off of the time before one will be ready, a first round of inoculations will likely go only to health workers and high-risk populations, with the general public having to wait until sometime next year to get a shot.
“The longer you wait, the more knowledge you’re going to have on the vaccine,” Narasimhan said. ”With reasonable confidence, we could have a safe and effective vaccine before the end of next year that could be used broadly.”