What If President Mnangagwa Had Died in the Helicopter Crash? Exploring Zimbabwe’s Potential Leadership Succession
By Farai D Hove | ZimEye | Harare, Zimbabwe – The helicopter crash in Masvingo on Sunday, intended to transport President Emmerson Mnangagwa, has sent shockwaves across Zimbabwe despite the President’s absence on board. The government’s confirmation of this close brush with disaster has sparked significant speculation: What if President Mnangagwa had been on the ill-fated flight? Who would have taken over the reins of power in the wake of such a tragedy?
While the nation breathes a sigh of relief that Mnangagwa was unharmed, the question of Zimbabwe’s leadership succession is not merely hypothetical—it exposes the fragile nature of power transitions in the country’s political structure. Zimbabwe’s Constitution does outline a succession path, but political realities suggest a more complex power struggle could have unfolded.
Vice President Kembo Mohadi: The Immediate Successor?
The first name that comes to mind is Vice President Kembo Mohadi, who is officially the next in line to assume the presidency in the event of the President’s death or incapacity. As Zimbabwe’s Vice President, Mohadi would be expected to assume power until the ruling party, ZANU-PF, convenes to select a more permanent replacement, or until elections are held.
However, Mohadi’s position is not without controversy. In 2021, he resigned from public office after allegations of misconduct surfaced, only to make a political comeback, remaining influential within ZANU-PF. His political baggage could either hinder his ascension or, paradoxically, create an opportunity for his rivals within the party to step forward. In the fraught landscape of Zimbabwean politics, such personal controversies can become tools for political maneuvering.
A Party Power Struggle?
ZANU-PF’s internal dynamics might not allow for a seamless transition to Mohadi. The ruling party has a history of intense factionalism, and the death of a sitting president could trigger a bitter power struggle between different factions.
The powerful group aligned with the Minister of Defence, Cde Oppah Muchinguri-Kashiri, would likely stake a claim to leadership. As a senior figure within both the party and government, Muchinguri-Kashiri has cultivated her own base of power and influence. Her proximity to Mnangagwa and her role in the military and defense structures make her a formidable candidate for higher office.
The ZANU-PF Women’s League and her connections to key military figures further bolster her standing, but the military itself could become a key player in determining who ultimately controls the country in the event of an unexpected presidential death. Given Zimbabwe’s history, where the military played a significant role in Mnangagwa’s rise to power following the ousting of Robert Mugabe, it’s likely that they would influence—or directly shape—the next succession.
The Mnangagwa Family: An Emerging Political Dynasty?
Some political observers have speculated that if Emmerson Mnangagwa were to unexpectedly die, the First Family itself might seek to maintain control of power. Dr. Auxilia Mnangagwa, the First Lady, has a background in politics as a former member of parliament, and some speculate she could emerge as a figurehead for a larger power bloc within ZANU-PF.
Although Auxilia is far from a traditional political heavyweight, the cultivation of political dynasties in African politics is not unprecedented. The Mnangagwa family, with its deep roots in Zimbabwe’s liberation history and control over key political and economic structures, could attempt to maintain influence by rallying party factions around a loyalist candidate. In such a scenario, the family may act as kingmakers rather than successors themselves.
What About the Opposition?
Any discussion of a power vacuum in Zimbabwe inevitably turns to the opposition, though the constitutional process provides little room for them in a sudden leadership transition. Nelson Chamisa’s Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) has grown in prominence, but it remains sidelined from real power as long as ZANU-PF remains entrenched. In the event of Mnangagwa’s death, the opposition might see a window of opportunity, particularly if ZANU-PF fractures internally, but they would face an uphill battle against the ruling party’s institutional grip on power.
The Military’s Role: Kingmakers Again?
The military’s influence cannot be overstated. In 2017, they played a crucial role in the ousting of Robert Mugabe and the elevation of Mnangagwa to the presidency. If Mnangagwa had died on Sunday, it is likely the military would once again be at the center of any power transition.
The question is not whether the military would involve itself but how. Would they endorse a candidate from within ZANU-PF’s top brass, or would they seek to impose their own leadership choice, possibly even from within the military ranks itself? Senior military officers with political ambitions may see a presidential death as an opening to consolidate control, just as the military once maneuvered Mnangagwa into office.
The Road Ahead: A Fragile Political Landscape
The mere possibility of President Mnangagwa’s untimely death underscores the fragility of Zimbabwe’s political system. While there is a formal constitutional framework for succession, the country’s political reality is far more complicated. The transition process could easily devolve into a factional fight within ZANU-PF, a military intervention, or even external mediation if things were to spiral out of control.
Zimbabwe’s history has shown that leadership transitions are rarely smooth. The close call in Masvingo serves as a stark reminder that, while power may appear solid, it can also be precariously perched. For now, the nation remains stable under Mnangagwa’s leadership, but questions of succession loom large, casting uncertainty on Zimbabwe’s political future.
Had Sunday’s crash claimed the President’s life, Zimbabwe may well have been thrust into a period of deep political uncertainty, with the future of its leadership far from clear.