Andrew M. Mwenda | There is a widespread assumption that presidents in Africa who rule for long do so out of personal greed for power. This accusation has been made against Robert Mugabe who ruled Zimbabwe for 37 before he was forced to resign recently. It is also the accusation against President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda as the ruling party seeks to amend the constitution and remove age limits so that he can run for the presidency in 2021. Yet when individual cases are examined closely, one finds the reality much more complex and nuanced. Let me illustrate.
In August 2008, while attending the Australian Davos Connection conference on the Hamilton Islands in the Pacific Ocean, I met a man called David Coltart. He was a legislator representing the Movement for Multiparty Democracy in Zimbabwe led by Morgan Tsvangirai. We were invited to a private dinner with the Prime Minister of Australia, Kevin Rudd and two other people.
Coltart told us that in the March 2008 presidential elections in Zimbabwe, Tsvangirai got 50.7% while President Robert Mugabe got 43.2%. Even before the results were officially announced, Mugabe sent a team to discuss a transition with the MDC. The two sides met for two days. On the third day the MDC team went to the venue but the government side did not show up.
They tried to reach their counterparts by phone in vain. Later they learnt that the top brass of the ZANU-PF and the security services led by Emmerson Mnangagwa (who had led Mugabe’s campaign), which also included army chief, Gen. Constantino Chiwenga, went to Mugabe and asked him why he was “abandoning them.” Mugabe told them he was not abandoning them. He said they had simply lost an election. No problem, they told Mugabe; we can change the results. And they did.
When the results finally were announced after a month, Tsvangirai had 47.9 against Mugabe’s 43.2%. This called for a second round. The state unleashed such violence and terror against the MDC that Tsvangirai pulled out leaving Mugabe to run alone and win by 85.5%. Mnangagwa was accused of orchestrating the violence.
This story is instructive. It shows that Mugabe’s confederates in ZANU-PF and the security services saw his conceding electoral defeat and handing power to a victorious opposition as betrayal. In agreeing to hold on to power, Mugabe was actually acting more out of group than personal interest.
This screengrab from Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation (ZBC) taken on November 16, 2017, shows Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe (2R) as he poses alongside Zimbabwe Defence Forces Commander General Constantino Chiwenga (R) and South African envoys after the army took power.
Secondly Mnangagwa, together with Chiwenga are today hailed as the new messiahs who ended Mugabe’s long rule. Yet they were the ones responsible for stifling a democratic transition in 2008. Indeed, Mugabe was more as a hostage of their power than its architect. And when he sought to initiate a transition to a young generation using his wife, they kicked him out.
Therefore, the celebration of Mugabe’s fall by many Zimbabweans, African elites and the Western media is misinformed. Mnangagwa and his conspirators do not represent a transition of power but maintenance of the status quo. Paradoxically, Mrs Grace Mugabe and her confederates in the G40 represented some form of a transition from the old guard in ZANU-PF.
The coup makers made it clear that their aim was to protect the power and privileges of the ZAPU-PF old guard. The Western media welcomed this non-transition because now they can bribe Mnangagwa with “aid” and removal of economic sanctions so that he can return property confiscated from whites or compensate them. The price will be to hand that country back to multinational capital, not to the people of Zimbabwe.
The lesson is that there are often more complex social dynamics behind political decisions in Africa. Yet most of our commentary tends to reduce such decisions to “personal greed” by presidents. We accuse our leaders of personalising power yet it is us personalising political decisions. We are too lazy and biased to dig beneath the surface and see the actual dynamics shaping our politics. Most of what we have is not knowledge but prejudice; and what goes for analysis is mere speculation.
African academics, politicians and journalists write very few, if any, books. And when we do, we use concepts, adjectives and tropes borrowed from Western academics and journalists who write about Africa. Yet these Westerners rely largely on their prejudices to write about Africa. Thus, even when we have facts, we don’t use them properly to explain why a particular decision in an African country was made.
All too often when analysing politics in Africa, we speculate about “what must have happened” instead of relying on “what actually happened”. Preconceived biases about leaders in Africa become a substitute for knowledge. Hence, existing “knowledge” about African leaders clouds rather than illuminates our understanding of the continent’s politics.
This is not to say leaders in Africa are not power hungry. Rather it is to argue that their individual preferences play a much more limited role compared to the collective interests of the groups they represent. And while our leaders make mistakes, these mistakes when carefully examined, are rarely stupid. It is easy to imagine that we or our preferred politicians would not have acted differently. This is rarely true. When examined closely, political leaders are rarely free actors. Their decisions are imposed upon them more by circumstances than by their personalities.
Look, postcolonial Africa has had 278 changes of leaders. Almost all of them – whether democratically elected politician, nationalist leader for independence, revolutionary hero of an armed struggle, an upstart hoisted to power by a popular insurrection, a military coup maker or peaceful successor to the death of an incumbent president – has come to power promising democracy, honest government and development. Nearly all our countries are still poor and corrupt today. Africa has not produced a South Korea.
If only 20% of our countries for 20% of the time were characterised by poor performance, we would say Africa has a political problem. If 40-50% of our countries for 40-50% of the time performed poorly, we could say Africa has a serious political crisis. But when 80-90% of our nations for 80-90% of the time perform badly, and when these problems remain in spite of 278 changes of leaders over a period of 60 years, and seem impervious to changing political systems, means of acquiring power etc., then the causes must have deep structural roots. We need to begin an entirely new conversation about politics in Africa. It is time to break the chains of the intellectual diet we have been fed about it.
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19 Replies to “How Chiwenga, Mnangagwa Held Mugabe Hostage For 9 Years, Uganda’s Mwenda Wades In”
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Totally agree with you, if you look at Mugabe history, he always wanted one party state and he wanted to rule forever. Listen to his videos in Mozambique back in the 70s. Mugabe was a very willing participant, to say otherwise is misleading and wrong.
You just right. People like you, me and other lightened thinking people we need to sharpen one another for a better Zimbabwe and Africa of the future
Mwenda’s analysis is shallow.It portrays Mugabe as someone who did not have power.If was a principled man he could have stood his ground and left. If he could fire Munangagwa now why could he not stand his ground in 2008. Mugabe was a willing participant he was power hungry. I do no buy this rubbish that the military forced him to retain power. As the president he could have just gone on TV to congratulate the MDC and concede defeat. History would have judged him better than what has happened now
Mwenda is alright….what mend your cousin to be seen alive?….he will not come to be alive again……to tell will never,never benefit you again…..the pain will sit in your heart for your entire live until the nature of God calls you…..here in South Africa Politicians created a Monster called TRC it never benefited the victims of Apartheid….the majority of the South African blacks did not benefit either ….you chasing the shadows to know the truth which will never assist you…..do not stay in past…..these atrocities are political motivated….Politics comes with amnesty ….all the perpetrator must be rewarded the International Amnesty to avoid more upcoming Wars……………………
My cousin was killed by these Zanu Pf thugs on the 13th of May 2008 in Magunje for simply being a card carrying member of the MDC-T Party.You said Mwenda was lying and you expect me to keep quiet when i have evidence in the form of my killed brother.You’re trying to defend hooligans and murderers and expect me to bury my head in the sand as if nothing happened.Please next time try to be sensetive in your comments concerning political violence because it affect several people here in Zimbabwe.
Do not stay at the past Makuruwani….it won’t build your future….it will destroy future plans….yes they where held for those weeks but to dig those graves won’t assist you….it will never.never benefit you….i am very much sorry to you My Friend….that is your clean opinion…..
Impressed by the article and subsequent comments. We have geniuses in this platform but we do not contribute to solving problems that affect our countries. Mwenda is telling us what to watch out of this new administration in the republic. It is apparently very clear that we have thrown ourselves in the fire by glorifying this coup. A combination of Chiwenga and Mnangagwa is dangerous for democracy in Zimbabwe. We have thrown ourselves in the deep end. Even if they loose the next elections, I doubt if they will concede defeat. Zimbabweans should prepare for an a out war. Things do not look good for our beloved country.
This article has been written by an independent author who is not participant in the drama unfolding in Zimbabwe. His approach, a bird’s eye view on Africa enables him to articulate the “political tragedy” with an open mind and professionalism. This is absolute truth that we can neither deny nor run away from. It is just so coherent and eloquent. Our reigning President needs to read and learn from such schools of learned thoughts that will assist to build his political career. All political leaders come in with genuine causes and promise to deliver but they all somehow lose their vision and focus along the way, Mugabe was not an exception and neither will be President Mnangagwa…. unless …. unless…… unless… He doesn’t go for a 2nd term in office.
What lies is Mwenda telling?Do you dispute that election results were withheld for 4 weeks?Do you also dispute that Chiwenga unleashed his army to terrorize the opposition supporters and campaign for Zanu Pf in the run off elections.The fact remains that Emmerson Mnangagwa and Chiwenga were instrumental in perpetuating and maintaing Mugabe’s dictatorship.
I totally agree with you.This a thought provoking article which contextualizes the political dynamics in Zimbabwe post 2008 elections.In as much we hate Mugabe it is unfair to solely blame him for all the bad things that happened in Zimbabwe while at the same time we celebrate as heroes people who propped up his autocracy.
What you don’t realise is that it was going to be easier to get rid of Grace Mugabe than it is now to get rid of ZANU PF and it’s ZANLA thugs. Grace without RG was not going to last long and without the Army getting involved in Elections we were going to have a good chance of returning the country to Majority rule. Mugabe dynasty was not bad after all because it was not going to last. As it is, the military junta will loot and rule forever.
Africa has a very big problem in running its affairs. This is a very good article for us to debate and share great ideas into the future but the only comments we get are insults. We are our own enemy. that is why progressive nations abuse us because we cannot help ourselves.
Shame on you gulllible Zimbabweans . This guy is telling the truth hate him or love him . The Herald by then had printed those results and publication was stopped . Your anger and hatred justified though does not make Munangagwa and Chiwenga saints . Muchamama watch the space . The army had faiiled to remove Mugabe because of what Mwenda is saying . He said good night when you were all expecting him to resign because up to now he is not afraid of those two . What made Mugabe were the people . The two always lied to him that people were happy .
It’s a fact had did concede defeat in 2008 . It’s a fact the command Centre chaired by ED told him not to go anywhere . They never expected the PA to be ambitious .
Smell the coffee , the country will never have a democratically elected. President until those War Vets died. Who did elect Munangagwa to become VP in ZANU Pf. Show us those election results .
You believe. grace was a reformed zanupf?
Let me get this right. This is the same Morgan Tsvangirayi we know who lauded the smooth takeover? Who attended the inauguration reportedly in Mugabe’s limo? Looks like there is a new feed-line from elsewhere to effect change as preferred in secret corridors.
Every Zimbabwean who was old enough in 2008 knows exactly what happened. We know that Tsvangirai won the election but was denied to take office by the army. It’s not a secret that the army openly told the people of Zimbabwe that they were not going to salute anyone without war of independence credentials. All the security chiefs paraded on ZTV before elections and told the nation that they were not ready to salute anyone who had no war credentials. So there is nothing new in what you are saying. Mugabe himself has said many times that Morgan Tsvangirai beat him in the 2008 elections by between 73% and 79% so we already knew that he was not refusing to leave office by himself but he was also being forced to soldier on by those around him including the security forces. That’s the reason Tsvangirai had to escape to Botswana instead of marching to state house after winning the elections. While it is true that African leaders stay longer in power not because of their own personal interests or greedy, it is also wrong for them to hand over power to their wives in in such a way as to form dynasties. Even though we knew who was propping up Mugabe’s stay in power, and we also knew why they were now wanting him out; we didn’t care much, all we wanted is to see him out after 37 years in power and plunder. We have no power of our own to stop the things happening in our country. So it’s not ignorance that we rejoiced the fall of Mugabe, we were just tired of him and his failure to handle his mandate in all spheres of his job.
Why doesn’t this fool comment about his country where they have failed to remove their own despot
Lies,Lies. .is a cooked rubbish story by Mwende to discredit the President of Zimbabwe Mr Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangangwa and Army General Constantino Chiwengwa. ..
Very compelling arguments indeed.