In what could be the beginning of the end for ZANU PF UK relations, the UK’s Prime Minister Theresa May tonight faces a no confidence vote against her.
Powerful & moving moment in the #1922 as the PM makes clear that she has has listened, heard & respects the will of the Party that once she has delivered an orderly Brexit, she will step aside for the election of a new Leader to lead the reunification & renewal we need. Respect. https://t.co/oF9KizADEU
— George Freeman MP (@GeorgeFreemanMP) December 12, 2018
Mrs May’s struggles emerged after she received over 48 letters of no confidence from her own party over her handling of the Brexit negotiations today.
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As ZimEye carries a LIVE analysis program the UK Guardian speculates saying is she is defeated, constitutional convention is that the PM remains in place until they can recommend to the Queen a successor who can command a majority in the House of Commons. There is no provision for interim leaders.
Since her rise, Emmerson Mnangagwa enjoyed a glimmer of hope amid projections that the Tory party will extend a green leaf to ZANU PF. Mnangagwa told a BBC journalist he prefers May as the UK leader. – ZimEye discusses this tonight.
Meanwhile, the Guardian says May would be a lame duck in office, unable to achieve anything of substance until the Conservatives pick a new leader. Ministers would also be unsure of their positions, as they are dependent on the prime minister for their jobs.
David Cameron remained in post for three weeks after he resigned following the 2016 EU referendum, until May emerged as the only candidate standing.
What would happen to the Brexit talks?
A May victory would prevent any leadership challenges, under Conservative party rules, for another year. It would strengthen her hand in dealing with Brussels, and allow her to say: you can see how much I need your help in avoiding a no-deal scenario, and getting Brexit through.
If May was defeated, the Brexit talks, and indeed government, would grind to a halt, as any serious negotiations would have to wait for a new leader to be in place. Conservative party rules state there are two parts to a leadership contest: any number of MPs can stand and then all the party’s 315 MPs vote to whittle that down to two.
That can be achieved by Christmas, but then there would normally have to be a ballot of members over the holiday season and not concluding until early January – unless one of the final two candidates drops out to speed up the Brexit talks.
If there is a new leader, is the only realistic option no deal?
There are two immediate possibilities for a new leader. A cabinet member could try to broadly follow May’s path – in trying to wring some concessions out of the European Union over the unpopular backstop, sign a revised exit withdrawal agreement, and concentrate energies on securing a new free trade deal.