By Donald J Mamba | Comment | Jacob Zuma defeating the African National Congress (ANC) in the May 2024 election involves several complex factors, including his political influence, public perception, and the dynamics within South African politics. As of now, several points should be considered:

1. Jacob Zuma’s Political Position: Zuma has been a divisive figure within the ANC and South African politics at large. His presidency was marred by allegations of corruption and governance challenges, which have damaged his reputation and influence. His ability to challenge the ANC directly or lead another party to victory against it would heavily depend on his ability to rehabilitate his political image and gather significant support.

2. Formation of a New Party or Coalition: If Zuma were to attempt to defeat the ANC, he would likely need to either form a new political party or align with existing opposition parties. The success of such a venture would depend on his ability to present a credible alternative to the ANC, attracting a broad base of support that transcends his traditional Zulu base and personal loyalists.

3. Public and Voter Sentiment: The South African public’s trust in Jacob Zuma has been severely impacted by his legal troubles and the general perception of his administration’s governance. Overcoming this sentiment and persuading a majority of voters to support him or his platform against the ANC would require significant shifts in public opinion, likely driven by new political narratives or significant socio-economic developments.

4. ANC’s Dominance: The ANC has been the dominant political force in South Africa since the end of apartheid in 1994. Despite internal factions and decreasing popularity due to various issues, the party retains a strong organizational structure and significant electoral support. Overcoming this would require a monumental and coordinated effort.