Mnangagwa’s 2030 Ambition: Can Chiwenga Fight Back?
26 March 2025
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By Jane Mlambo| Zanu PF power struggles between President Emmerson Mnangagwa and his powerful deputy Constantino Chiwenga are quickly escalating, with the former making clear moves to solidify his grip while the latter remains largely silent, yet to show his political teeth.

Mnangagwa, who has since last year used proxies to declare his intention to stay in power beyond his constitutionally mandated term limit, continues to systematically weaken Chiwenga’s power base. This strategic decimation has left the former military chief appearing politically vulnerable, unable to mount a strong counteroffensive.

Chiwenga’s potential moves have been hinted at through embattled war veteran and former Zanu PF central committee member Blessed Geza, but he has remained tight-lipped, fueling speculation about his ability—or lack thereof—to challenge Mnangagwa’s growing dominance.

The silence from Chiwenga’s camp has left political analysts and citizens alike questioning whether he has the capacity or the will to stop Mnangagwa from consolidating control and ultimately securing a third term.

The worry from his sympathisers stem from the fact that his power based is being decimated everyday and eventually he will be weaker and unable to launch a fight for his own survival.

With rumors swirling that Mnangagwa may relieve his of his powerful Vice President post, it may be important for the former military commander to show his power and re-assure his followers that they have a fighting chance.

It has been widely speculated that Mnangagwa and Chiwenga had an unwritten agreement that they would take turns leading Zanu PF and the government, based on the power dynamics established after the November 2017 military coup that ousted Robert Mugabe. However, with each passing day, it appears that Mnangagwa is unilaterally rewriting this arrangement, positioning himself as the undisputed leader of the ruling party beyond 2028.

Mnangagwa’s recent political maneuvers, including reshuffling key government positions, placing loyalists in strategic roles, and maintaining firm control over state security apparatus, suggest a clear intent to sideline any potential challengers—including Chiwenga. The President’s push for a national referendum to amend the constitution and remove presidential term limits is a direct indication of his long-term political ambitions.

On the other hand, Chiwenga’s influence within the military remains a subject of speculation. While he was instrumental in the 2017 coup and has deep ties within the armed forces, his ability to mobilize them against Mnangagwa is increasingly in doubt. Some reports suggest that Mnangagwa has been working to weaken Chiwenga’s influence in the military by strategically promoting loyalists who are more aligned with his interests. If true, this could explain Chiwenga’s reluctance to confront Mnangagwa openly.

Meanwhile, Zimbabweans are growing increasingly anxious about the implications of this power struggle. With Mnangagwa tightening his grip on power and Chiwenga failing to mount a visible resistance, the prospect of a one-man rule beyond 2028 seems more likely than ever. The political uncertainty is also fueling concerns about governance, economic stability, and the potential for increased repression as Mnangagwa consolidates his authority.

While military men are known for playing their politics deep underground, the continued silence from Chiwenga’s camp is deafening. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether he will emerge as a formidable challenger or whether Mnangagwa will complete his political dominance, effectively ending any internal opposition within Zanu PF.