By Gideon Chitanga|Thabo Mbeki, former President of South Africa (1999-2008), and the facilitator of the Government of National Unity(GNU) in Zimbabwe (2008-2013) was in Zimbabwe in December to facilitate a post Mugabe political settlement between ZANU PF and the Movement for Democratic Change Alliance(MDCA) in the face of deepening socio-economic and political crisis.
Following the removal of former President Robert Mugabe, through the November 2017 coup, the disputes over subsequent 2018 elections outcome, controversially won by ZANU PF, repressive authoritarian rule and violation of human rights has triggered debilitating economic collapse synonymous with Mugabe’s rule.
The consequent illegitimacy facing President Mnangagwa after the rejection of his election victory by Chamisa has triggered political and economic uncertainty which has blighted his government’s efforts of reengagement with the international community and prospects of financial support from International Financial Institutions(IFIs), multilateral and bilateral aid from Western countries, which imposed sanctions on ZANU PF elites, resulting in concerning socio-economic meltdown, nudging sub-regional leaders to push for dialogue. The United Nations has already indicated that Zimbabwe is at the messy of a disastrous man-made disaster as the country faces drought which may worsen emigration into already economically pressed neighbors, especially South Africa.
MBEKI’s Mediation
In addition to meeting President Mnangagwa and the MDCA’s Nelson Chamisa to push them towards bi-partisan dialogue, Mbeki also met with leaders of political parties under the banner of the Political Actors Dialogue (POLAD) and the clergy. However, these first meetings point to deeply entrenched polarization, lack of trust, if not outright suspicion, if not lack of political maturity and will to put the country ahead of political gamesmanship and grand standing. While both ZANU PF and the MDCA have indicated their willingness to engage in dialogue, they equally declared lofty conditions too high to climb down without risking serious political embarrassment and betrayal, particularly from their hardline constituencies.
Media reports suggest that the MDCA dispatched “emissaries” to ZANU PF HQ (The Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU–PF) in October 2019 to persuade the ruling party to come to the negotiating table. There are also reports that the MDCA sent two other teams of emissaries as part of multilateral efforts at reaching out to perceived power brokers within ZANU PF. These emissaries are all constituted by members of the Standing Committee (SC) and some technical experts drawn from the legal fraternity. In spite of these reports, the MDCA has insisted on set of conditions before any dialogue can take place.
Mnangagwa, who has declared his willingness for dialogue under the government created POLAD, has met the clergy on several occasions, declaring that he is ready for dialogue with the MDCA together with all opposition parties under POLAD.
In a 19-page response to the Zimbabwe Heads of Christian Denominations (ZHOCD)’ s push for dialogue in October 2019, Mnangagwa gave us a lot to think about through his 19-page response to the submissions by church leaders, crucially revealing his thinking on the question of dialogue, but also his thoughts on the national trajectory with respect to the government’s chequered relationship with the MDCA.
Mnangagwa, just like in messages repeated in the public media following Mbeki’s visit to Zimbabwe, argued that his government has already provided institutions for dialogue through the Political Actors Dialogue(POLAD) platform, and the offer his government made to the MDCA to recognize the party and its leader as the official opposition, in a Westminster-like model as probably practiced in the UK. He further contends that these overtures were spurned by the MDCA, while casting Machiavellian aspersions to the opposition camp. The same message, pushed relentlessly in the public media, should have been firmly conveyed in Mnangagwa and the POLAD representatives’ meetings with Mbeki.
Although post Chamisa’s meetings with Mbeki, the MDCA send mixed messages, their consistent demand is their aversion for POLAD and the demand for bi-partisan dialogue. However, for both intraparty and external reasons the MDCA at this present moment is incapable of embarking on a revolutionary or radical project, beyond a wait and see approach. The MDCA will not embark on protests for fear of jeopardizing prospects of much wanted dialogue with ZANU PF, however dim the prospects. ZANU PF will dig in, and the crisis deepens, damn the consequences.
In the meantime, although struggling with a melting economy, Mnangagwa has comfortably consolidated his hold on power within his party, after it was rocked by internal divisions, post the coup that removed Mugabe. Having said that, the greatest fear for ZANU PF is the G40, former faction within ZANU PF, for reasons we will discuss in another article next week. Given this brief context, ZANU PF is and has offered “engagement” or “dialogue” at its own terms. Mnangagwa’s public view simply emphasizes and reinforces ZANU PF’s position that there is one dialogue platform for all political parties, the Political Actors Dialogue (POLAD) and other state driven statutory institutions through which the MDCA could engage in “dialogue.” In addition to such avenues, ZANU PF has proposed to create a West minister like position of the leader of the opposition within Parliament which the MDCA rejected.
In my view, bipartisan dialogue between ZANU PF and the MDCA will not happen, at least not for now, because ZANU PF is not interested in such a dialogue. Outside a serious shift in the balance of forces in favour of the opposition, or a seismic event which could render them a favorable moral argument pitching them on higher moral pedestal than ZANU PF, the ruling system will for now persist without the MDCA. While the government is faced with intense socio- economic pressure, such pressure cannot in and by itself cause a serious policy change allowing for another political settlement with the MDCA in government. At the present moment, ZANU PF still believes that they have a chance to turn around the situation in spite of the glaring challenges they face. Accordingly, Mbeki’s intervention will simply trigger false hope deflecting attention from the real issues, probably diverting public attention and the focus of the opposition. Barring socio-economic implosion with serious tragic events that could focus continental and international attention on Zimbabwe’s government, 2020 is going to be life or business as usual.
To recap, the MDCA does not have many options other than to join the institutions they previously spurned, otherwise its leadership will simultaneously bleed public confidence while eroding its support base. The focus of the MDCA to push for bipartisan dialogue, with a view to join a “Unit Government” is a poor, futile, if not ill-conceived political tactic. The party must redirect its focus towards contesting and consolidating democratic gains in every democratic institution and space informed by politics of democratic reform.
Gideon Chitanga is a Regional Analyst with an interest in Africa, Media and Communication Expert.