By Tinashe Eric Muzamhindo| You need applied scientific approach in the hidden doldrums’ of intelligence in politics. This kind of intelligence is not found in books, neither in universities, it’s a gifted approach. Politics is not a church where you read out verses and congregants will be listening attentively, you have to find your own way apply tactics for ascending to power. You cannot expect the smooth running of the process, it has rough patches and the road to State House has so many patches and it can never be smart as people may think. Sometimes it does not require counting of votes, but requires strategic thinking and intelligence to counter your opponent. I can bet you my last dollar, the dirty or smart tactics which Zanu PF used in 2018 elections will not be repeated, whilst you are chasing after how they did in 2018, with your v11 forms, they will be armed with new tips and life continues like that till 2065 until nature takes its course on the old generation. Go through a case study on 2008 and 2013. In 2008 it was a violent run-off and most people particularly in rural areas fled their homes, and in 2013 it was a calm election. I will ask you two questions, why rural? Secondly the impact of the strategy was a long term plan to instill fear in the electorate. I can bet you my last dollar, in 2023, no one will be killed in the streets, on the day of announcement, there will be no one in the streets and everyone will be following live proceedings of Chigumba and crew from their comfort zones of their homes. The august 1 event was a done deal to future elections, and such events require intelligence and strategy to have such case study on how to come up with proper political strategy. Zanu PF will never lose elections consecutively, when I say losing, I’m not referring to controversial figures, but I’m making practical reference on the basis of what has been announced by the electoral mother body, Zimbabwe Election Commission.
Behind Zanu PF conference: Military tone
To those who followed proceedings of the
just ended Zanu PF conference in Goromonzi you can easily conclude that ED and
team have sealed 2023 elections. Whilst it may be impractical for opposition
members to attend such events, I would urge you follow such closely or even
have some people attending such events. It is important for political scoring
and calculations. You cannot easily ignore Chiwenga’s statements which were
pin-point on politics and future elections whilst ED was sealing his mandate. I
followed the whole proceedings and it was a clear message that we are in charge
and forget about any new arrangement. This only requires strategic intelligence
to understand what it means when dealing with a military regime. This was a
military tone in the form of civilian clothing. Whilst there may be political
differences and ideological thinking within the top leadership, when it comes
to power matrix and serious threats they unite. So for those who maybe banking
on Chiwenga and his faction are getting it wrong, mainly because even if
Chiwenga plots his way to the top, he will still maintain the status quo of
what is in Zanu PF. When results are announced in Zimbabwe forget about
reversal and focus on going back to the drawing board. Once ZEC makes final
announcement whether correct or wrong figures, its deal done. There must be
strategic intelligence before announcements of results and even applied
scientific approach to deal with situations. So basically, the message is clear
that we are returning 2023 at all costs.
Case study: speakers at the just ended
conference
The conference had nothing to do with
economy or investor confidence. The conference was designed to send a clear
warning that we are in charge and come 2023 we are returning at all cost. Do
you know why they designed their message in such a sequence form? If you study
the speakers, they were given what to say and it was well aligned. There were
four key interesting speakers, although first three, to someone who goes for
political strategy must be able to read between the lines. The following
speakers, President Emmerson Mnangagwa, General Chiwenga and Chief Charumbira.
For those who are asking, this simple question, what about the economy, the
conference was never designed for that. When Zanu PF describes an enemy, these
are trespassers into their political and economic interests. Anyone who steals
is not enemy, an enemy is someone who challenges the plot number seat. It’s all
about politics. Chiwenga talked about sealing the 2023 route, ED talked about
enemy of progress in general referring to his presidential seat and Charumbira
talked about no reversal of land reforms. Opah was designed to emphasize ED’s
Presidency till 2030. She is the gate keeper of the seat.
Under-ground planning
If you look at how Zanu PF operates, they
don’t post much their plans, resolutions or even what they are thinking.
Anything that comes into their mind, they keep it close to their chest. Too
many social media rants results in heavy loss during electoral process. Your
opponent uses counter measures through under case studies. Zanu PF thrives on
intelligence and they invest much running into millions of dollars in
intelligence. This is what should happen to State House aspirants. You need to
fork out resources for under-ground planning and connecting with the right
people.
Rural Strategy
As long as Zanu PF is in charge of rural
constituencies, they will be in power for the next 15 years. Opposition must
come up with proper and well-crafted rural strategic plan to deal with the two
thirds majority. How do you penetrate rural constituencies particularly those
with huge numbers. Remember for presidential elections, every vote counts, for
them it’s a done deal especially when the rural electorate status quo is
maintained. The blunder that opposition made was to endorse the delimitation
exercise which was led by the COPAC team, which allowed delimitation of more
rural constituencies ahead of urban seats. Look at Glen View South seat it has
over 50 000 potential voters, and look at Makoni South and North it has
apparently around 30/40 000 both seats. When it comes into a proper
delimitation exercise, Glen View south, it was supposed to be divided into
three seats. Zanu PF’s weapon was rural seats using delimitation exercise so
that they can meet the two thirds majority in Parliament. Good schemers ahead
of time. Instead of pushing for such reforms, the opposition is pushing for
dialogue.
Commercial branding
Political institutions must look attractive
and appealing. Their regalia must be appealing to the public and potential
development partners. You must turn the party into a commercial brand. The
candidate must be sellable. You field a weak candidate in politics, your
opponent will have a field day with you. Zanu PF controls a large stake of the
economy especially in the critical sectors of the economy. That is why they
invest much on their political agenda. When it comes to conferences, rallies
and congresses, they put a lot of money, when it comes to hospitals and other
relief challenges, they will put a deaf ear to that aspect. So political
institutions must invest much in commercial branding.
People don’t eat rallies, they eat food on the table
Look at the Chimanimani and Chipinge seats,
which were affected by the deadly cyclone idah, I can assure you, Zanu PF will
retain those seats 100%. Simple mathematics, foot soldiers are always on the
ground. Door to door strategy is efficient, you easily connect with the people.
Look at Auxilia Mnangagwa she is always in those mostly affected areas and she
is giving them food and handouts. Go to Chipinge and Chimanimani and tell them
Zanu PF is a brutal party, you will seek refuge in the nearby mountains. Simple
mathematics, give people something to eat. It’s a political strategy. Yes they
call it vote buying, but there are no elections now, so what do you call that
concept? Political space does not easily buy into mock exams, where people come
with good speeches on rallies, they want tangible results. It’s now stomach of
the belly.
Grassroots connectivity
You must connect with the people not
through speeches or handshakes and slogans. People want food, school fees,
unifroms, bread etc. for those who make research and case studies, Zanu PF
structures in rural areas they are very intact. From cell, ward, village and
every structure, they mark the register. The reason why opposition continue
losing rural seats, im focusing on parliamentary, they give projections using
rallies and estimated projections. With Zanu PF, they do head counting and they
are serious with that format, but with opposition, they simple paint the
grounds with either blue, red, and all the stadiums and mountains, and once
that is done, then they can safely say State House is ours. Don’t forget that
people go to rallies for food, handouts, music and other things.
Can I tell you something which you didn’t
know? Are you aware that most people both have Zanu PF and MDC regalia in their
homes? I witnessed this during Mugabe-Tsvangirai era. Go in rural areas, camp
there, talk to people, attend funerals of ordinary people, and share with them
ideas. People simply need empowerment.
Tinashe Eric Muzamhindo – D. Phil Candidate (Women’s University in Africa). He is also the Executive Director of Global Institute of Policy Analysis and Research. He is also a Policy Advisor and leading Project Management Consultant and he can be contacted at tinamuzala@gmail.com
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