Opinion By Tom Rogan | Following Israel’s overnight killing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad commander Baha Abu al Ata, nearly 200 rockets have been fired from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel. So why did Israel kill al Ata, and what happens next?

The answer to the first question is quite simple. The head of the PIJ’s military wing, the Jerusalem Brigades, al Ata had made a name for himself as an increasingly aggressive, charismatic, and independently minded commander. Acting outside of the influence and intent of Hamas, the terrorist group in nominal control of the Gaza Strip, al Ata was determined to wage his own little war against Israel. Except, over the past 12 months, al Ata’s little war has become a lot bigger. Launching unprovoked rocket attacks on Israel against Hamas’ wishes, al Ata earned himself adoration as a bold leader unafraid to take the fight to the enemy. His ambition was significant and his threat commensurate.

It is possible that al Ata was even breaking against the directives of his own PIJ leadership. Notably, while another PIJ hard-liner in Damascus, Akram al Ajouri, was unsuccessfully targeted near simultaneously to the strike on al Ata, PIJ’s Secretary General Ziyad al Nakhalah was not targeted. Had Israel intended for this to be a full-scale war, they would have wanted to eliminate al Nakhalah with his subordinates. That they did not is suggestive of an Israeli intelligence assessment that the PIJ will gradually moderate once the current breakout of violence ends. Also indicating Israel’s desire to contain the violence is its reluctance, thus far, to launch major strikes against Hamas targets in Gaza. In addition, the Israelis seem to be targeting PIJ rocket teams more than fixed command facilities. Again, that is not war strategy.

What comes next?

The Egyptian government is once again embracing the role of mediator here. Having achieved its primary objective, Israel will be happy to return to a relative ceasefire. This interest will be further emphasized on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s part as he jockeys with the center-left’s Benny Gantz over which leader will form the next government. While Gantz appears to be making progress toward forming a new government in the aftermath of September elections, nothing is yet certain. And war makes everything uncertain.

Hamas has its own reasons to want to avoid further escalation. While it is obviously no fan of Israel, many of the group’s leaders will be quite (albeit very quietly) thankful for Israel. Getting rid of al Ata, the Israelis have served to consolidate Hamas’ narrative mantle as the supreme masters of the Palestinian resistance. They no longer have to deal with a charismatic upstart who made them look hesitant and too deferential to Israeli threats.

There is one final complication here: Iran. The PIJ’s patron, Iran now may decide to escalate against Israel with its other major proxy, the Lebanese Hezbollah. While this escalation is unlikely and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah doesn’t want it, the risk cannot be ruled out. Iran’s recent behavior suggests it is ready to roll the dice against its adversaries.

Tom Rogan is a foreign policy focused commentary writer for the Washington Examiner. He holds a BA in War Studies from King’s College London, an MSc in Middle East Politics from SOAS, and a GDL in law from the University of Law. Among others, he has previously written for National Review, The Telegraph, and The Guardian.