By Tererai Rushwaya| Regarding the demonstration on the 16th of August, it’s prudent to expect the worst from this brutal Zanu regime

Picture taken from REUTERS via BBC website

Zanu is already churning out goebbelsian press statements and direct threats to the people who will protest on the 16th of August. The way I see it, this regime could react in two ways:

1) The regime could allow the demonstration to go ahead and not respond with violence

The regime could surmise that there is not much fire in the bellies of the citizenry and that this demo or these demos will fizzle out quickly, and as such it would be not worth sending out the soldiers to kill people. Also, this way, the regime would hope to get brownie points from the international community for ‘respecting the democratic rights of people to demonstrate as per the Zimbabwean constitution’.

However, this hypothesis is based on the dangerous and somewhat naive assumption that this blood thirsty military junta cares more about its image to the world than its inherent fear of an uprising from the masses. If I am correct, since the coup in 2017, there have been three demonstrations in Zimbabwe and in two of those demos the regime responded by sending gun totting soldiers onto the streets and in the ghettos to torture and kill people.

The one demonstration to which the junta responded relatively tamely was the demonstration in Harare for electoral reforms by the MDC Alliance before the 2018 general election. It’s worth noting that this was during the post coup period when the regime was trying to look benign in an effort to hoodwink the MDC into walking into a rigged election – which they did. Oh yes, those who read my blog will know that in June and July of 2018 I made the point that Zanu is hoping that the MDC sleepwalks into a rigged election. Months following the coup, Zanu was enjoying a whole lot of ‘benefit of the doubt’ even within the intellectual culture of Zimbabwe.

There are numerous ‘intellectual observers’ who were giving ED a chance – god knows on what basis; maybe there were blinded by the scarf which is obviously a PR prop designed to make a scary man look human or approachable.

Or maybe these observers believed the reformist propaganda which ED was putting out on a daily basis on the state owned media. Either way, it’s a damning indictment of these so called ‘intellectuals’ who are now back on the right side of history and rightfully criticising this military junta.

Anyway, where was I? Oh yes, like I said, the first post coup demo was an MDC demo for electoral reforms which happened before the election in 2018. The regime allowed it to go peacefully because they were trying to coax the MDC into a false sense of security and then sleepwalk them into a rigged election.

As for the other two demonstrations, one happened right after the election and the other, after fuel price hikes in January of this year, and as we know both demos were met with a ruthless response by the military. A pattern is observable here. Since stealing the election, the regime has shown a hard-line, draconian, and murderous response to demonstrations.

One could argue that after the election in 2018, the regime really does not care how the international community views its treatment of citizens exercising their right to demonstrate. Therefore, expecting them to react benevolently or democratically to the demonstration on the 16th is extremely optimistic.

2) The regime could respond to the demonstrations with a ruthless and murderous crackdown on the MDC and the public

This second hypothesis takes into consideration the pattern of behaviour by the regime which I have described above.

It also takes into consideration the fact that this is a military junta; a jumpy and mad military junta led by old and cruel men who will not hesitate to kill and crackdown on any dissenting public. Already, we have seen the regime putting out goebbelsian propaganda about the MDC via its ministers, and actual threats via its knuckle dragging cheerleaders in the war veterans association.

I mean, to me, this lot are talking the language of war just as I have opined in numerous posts in my blog, that Zanu pf is in a war mood and has been warring with the Zimbabwean public for the last 3 decades. When they treat the public as a potential insurgency, one is wise to believe that they will treat a peaceful demonstration as if it is an actual insurgency.

So what next?
Well, if people want to demonstrate against the rapid deterioration of the economy and much else in the country they should do so.

If people want to rise up against this brutal kleptocracy they should do so. But it’s prudent to know that this is a mad regime that has killed before and will kill again. People need to be adequately prepared.

Now, I’ve heard numerous recommending that the demonstrators should carry cameras and videotape the demo so that they capture any encroachments from the regime. Indeed that is a good idea. But I also, don’t think collecting evidence of the regime’s brutality will result in justice.

At the same time, not having the evidence is also problematic because the regime’s automatic response to accusations of state violence would be ‘show us the evidence’. But last August, there was evidence showing soldiers shooting at a fleeing public, and still, justice was never served – we all remember the egregiousness of that Commission of Inquiry.

I believe adequate preparation for this demonstration should focus a lot more on practical issues such as first aid kits, makeshift bulletproof vests (if that’s possible), tear gas masks, loads of water, identifying and rooting out Zanu provocateurs within the crowds. This is a mad regime, people should always expect the worst from this lot.

By Tererayi Rushwaya @Irreverencesuit, https://theradicalzimbabwean.wordpress.com/