News of The South|The high number of plant breakdowns at South Africa’s power utility Eskom are likely going to result in load-shedding by mid-January, energy commentator Chris Yelland has forecasted.

With demand at about 4 000MW lower than normal, Eskom has got by without the need to drop customers from the grid since mid-December.

However, unplanned breakdowns have been far higher than Eskom’s desirable threshold of 9 500MW, with the result that when demand rises, there will be little power.

“The risk of load-shedding remains high as the level of plant breakdowns has been trending above the low-risk level of below 10 500MW,” read a statement from Eskom.

Over the holiday period, unplanned breakdowns ranged between 12 500MW and 14 500MW. On Friday, unplanned breakdowns were at 14 096MW.

“The short and tall of it is that from the low demand at the end of December 2019, one can expect an increase in demand of about 4 000 MW in week three and four of January,” said Yelland.

On most days over the holiday period, Eskom had less than 30 000MW of dispatchable energy at its disposal.