Will Julius Malema win his argument against Cyril Ramaphosa over the DA coalition inclusion matter?

By Farai D Hove | “The EFF continues to be a radical, militant and revolutionary economic emancipation movement and will not compromise principle on the altar of political and opportunistic convenience.

“We remain open to a discussion, now and in the future that will result in a government that does not include the DA and FF Plus.” – Julius Malema.

Julius Malema’s stance against Cyril Ramaphosa and the inclusion of the Democratic Alliance (DA) in a coalition government rests on several key elements. To assess the probability of Malema successfully influencing the political landscape to exclude Ramaphosa and the DA from significant power, we need to consider a variety of factors, including the political dynamics in South Africa, the power of rhetoric, and the actual political influence of Malema and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).

#### Factors Influencing Probability

1. **Election Results and Parliamentary Composition**
– **ANC’s Position:** The African National Congress (ANC) holds 40% of the votes, a significant portion but not a majority. This necessitates coalition-building to form a government.
– **EFF’s Position:** The EFF’s electoral strength and parliamentary representation are crucial. Their ability to sway decisions depends on their seat count relative to other parties, including the DA and smaller parties.

2. **Coalition Dynamics**
– **Coalition Building:** Coalitions are essential for governance in a fragmented parliament. The ability of the ANC or any major party to form a coalition excluding the DA depends on their negotiations with other parties.
– **EFF’s Leverage:** The EFF must have sufficient bargaining power to influence coalition terms. This depends on their seat count and the willingness of other parties to align with their radical stance.

3. **Political Influence and Public Sentiment**
– **Public Support:** Malema’s rhetoric aims to resonate with public sentiment. If a significant portion of the electorate is disillusioned with the ANC and DA, Malema’s stance gains traction.
– **Media and Public Opinion:** Media portrayal and public discourse play roles in shaping opinions and political pressure. Malema’s ability to dominate the narrative can affect coalition negotiations.

4. **Strategic Interests of Parties**
– **ANC’s Strategy:** The ANC’s approach to coalition-building, prioritizing stability, and governance over ideological purity affects the likelihood of excluding the DA.
– **DA’s Role:** The DA’s potential contribution to a coalition, in terms of votes and governance capability, could be seen as indispensable, complicating Malema’s argument.

#### Calculating the Probability

While we can’t calculate an exact numerical probability, we can outline a qualitative assessment:

– **High Probability Factors:**
– Strong public support for EFF’s anti-ANC/DA stance.
– Significant EFF parliamentary representation, giving them substantial negotiating power.
– Effective media campaign and public rallies swaying opinion.

– **Low Probability Factors:**
– Strong coalition incentives between ANC and DA for stability.
– Insufficient EFF seats to command coalition terms.
– Public perception favoring a more centrist, stable government.

#### Summary

The probability of Julius Malema successfully forcing Cyril Ramaphosa out of including the DA in the coalition hinges on the EFF’s political leverage and public sentiment. Given the EFF’s radical stance and Malema’s ability to mobilize public opinion, there is a potential, though not assured, likelihood of influencing coalition dynamics. The ultimate outcome will depend on the interplay of election results, party negotiations, and the strategic decisions of the ANC and other political actors.