Rebuttal: The Economic Reality Under Mnangagwa’s Rule
By Farai D Hove | ZimEye | President Emmerson Mnangagwa recently claimed that Zimbabwe’s economy is on an unstoppable path to recovery, attributing this to his government’s strategic initiatives and resilience in the face of adversity. However, a closer examination reveals a far different reality. Zimbabwe’s economy remains in a deep crisis, one that many argue will never recover as long as Mnangagwa remains in power. The economic collapse is inextricably linked to his rise to power through military coups, electoral manipulation, and the resulting erosion of trust in the country’s leadership.
Since the ousting of Robert Mugabe in 2017, Mnangagwa’s tenure has been marred by a series of military interventions that have not only undermined democracy but also shattered investor confidence. The first coup, which removed Mugabe, was a turning point for Zimbabwe. While many hoped for a new dawn, it quickly became clear that Mnangagwa’s rise was not a transition to democracy but rather a consolidation of power by the military elite.
This was followed by the disputed 2018 elections, where Nelson Chamisa, the leader of the opposition MDC Alliance, was seen as the legitimate winner. However, in a move that shocked the nation and the world, the Zimbabwean military intervened to alter the election results in favor of Mnangagwa. This intervention was even broadcasted on state television, ZBC, which aired military officials discussing the alteration of the election outcomes. The international community, including the United Nations and various human rights organizations, condemned these actions, but no substantial reforms followed.
In 2023, history repeated itself when the military once again played a pivotal role in preventing Chamisa from claiming victory. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) openly criticized the elections, highlighting the irregularities and military involvement. The SADC’s observer mission reported that the elections did not meet the regional standards for free and fair elections, further delegitimizing Mnangagwa’s presidency.
Economic Collapse: The Cost of Illegitimacy
The consequences of Mnangagwa’s illegitimate rule have been dire for Zimbabwe’s economy. Since 2017, the country has seen an unprecedented economic decline, with hyperinflation reaching levels not seen since the 2008 crisis. According to the World Bank, Zimbabwe’s inflation rate soared to over 600% in 2023, eroding the value of the Zimbabwean dollar and plunging millions into poverty. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has repeatedly warned that without significant political reforms, Zimbabwe’s economy is unlikely to recover.
Investors have also fled the country in droves, fearing the instability that comes with a government propped up by military force rather than democratic legitimacy. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has plummeted, with figures from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) showing a 35% decrease in FDI inflows between 2018 and 2022. The lack of trust in Zimbabwe’s governance is a major factor, as businesses are unwilling to invest in a country where the rule of law is undermined by military interventions.
A Market Without Confidence
Markets thrive on stability and the rule of law, both of which are conspicuously absent under Mnangagwa’s regime. The Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) has been volatile, reflecting the uncertainty that permeates the economy. The Zimbabwean dollar, reintroduced in 2019, has rapidly depreciated, with black market exchange rates often double the official rates. This has further fueled inflation and eroded savings, leaving ordinary Zimbabweans struggling to afford basic necessities.
Economists have repeatedly pointed out that as long as Zimbabwe is led by a president whose legitimacy is in question, the economy will continue to flounder. Dr. John Robertson, a leading Zimbabwean economist, has stated, “No serious investor will put money into a country where the leadership can change overnight through military intervention. The risks are simply too high, and without investment, there can be no recovery.”
The Call for Change
The international community, particularly the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union (AU), have a critical role to play in addressing the crisis in Zimbabwe. The continued military involvement in politics is not only a threat to Zimbabwe’s economy but also to regional stability. The recent condemnation of the 2023 elections by SADC is a positive step, but more needs to be done to ensure that Zimbabwe returns to democratic governance.
Zimbabweans are calling for genuine political reforms and the restoration of democratic principles. Only through such reforms can the country hope to rebuild its economy. Until Mnangagwa steps down or is removed through a legitimate democratic process, Zimbabwe’s economy will remain in a state of perpetual crisis, and the dream of recovery will remain out of reach.
While Mnangagwa speaks of unstoppable economic growth, the reality on the ground is one of economic collapse, driven by illegitimate rule and military interference. The markets, and indeed the people of Zimbabwe, will never trust or invest in a government that has come to power through such undemocratic means. For Zimbabwe’s economy to recover, a new chapter must begin—one that is rooted in democracy, the rule of law, and genuine leadership change.