Open to leave?
Zimbabwe is disabled by a negative risk profile. This stems from past policy volte-faces or shifts, and from our poor debt-servicing record.
Recently, President Mnangagwa faced a difficult question: if Zimbabwe is now open for business, are its doors also open to capital when it wants to leave?
Where does the foreign currency to disinvest come from, given the current paucity of United States dollars? Can an investor repatriate his earnings in US dollars?
We have many investors whose dividends are trapped inside our country, for want of foreign currency.
From these and much more, it is not hard to see why Zimbabwe still has more to do in order to shake off the “trap-door” image that dogs it, dissuading investors and lenders alike.
Until one appreciates the cost which all this levies on efforts to recover our economy, one may never quite appreciate what President Mnangagwa is doing. Or even be able to measure how well he has done so far, or is doing presently.
All is made worse by the gathering electioneering environment in which easy judgments and facile comparisons are made by empty, juvenile opposition politicians at recycled rallies.
Situating travel
The Abidjan meeting of CEOs was critical in so far as it secured a commitment from Afreximbank to de-risk Zimbabwe by unveiling a US$1,5 billion support facility to investors intent on setting up shop in Zimbabwe.
To have a bank availing so much at such a well-targeted meeting is no small story, let alone one deserving to be greeted by a litany of cynical comments which are both uninformed and politically self-serving.
As Zimbabweans, we cannot talk down ourselves and our country, at a time when such a serious and judicious institution is vouching for us.
And Afreximbank has kept Zimbabwe afloat even when the country was at its nadir.
Its bullish rating of Zimbabwe has a lot to do with the changes it reads in the horizon, thanks to the new dispensation, and of course the identity of its key shareholders who understand us better and more, thanks to diplomatic efforts that are underway.
As such offers are made, it is important that the country’s leadership spells out clearly to investors areas deserving priority attention.
Needless to say this situates President Mnangagwa’s travels.
China visit
The just-ended State Visit to China – itself the world’s second largest economy – at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jiping resulted in a raft of key gains.
But for me, three gains stand out and above all else that was achieved during that short six-day visit.
China, which is owed millions of dollars by Zimbabwe, charitably de-linked Zimbabwe’s debt obligations and settlement plans to Zimbabwe’s eligibility for fresh loans and grants.
To this end, both its banks and its insurers are now ready to provide capital and cover to Chinese venture capital.
This is a fundamental shift in Chinese policy, but one requiring reciprocation by a new, serious Zimbabwe which honours its debt obligations and makes itself attractive to foreign direct investments.
This breakthrough came on the back of a Joint Commission which thrashed out sticky issues between the two nations, and of course from the amazingly warm chemistry that developed between President Xi and President Mnangagwa.
The ball is now in Zimbabwe’s court.
Dollarising such a major policy shift by a mega-economy makes costs of travel to China paltry.
Strategic partnership
The second key gain came by way of the Chinese initiative to upgrade Zimbabwe-China bilateral status to that of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.
This is quite a departure from the nebulous “all-weather friend” status which, though sweet to repeat in the political mouth, materially and concretely amounted to little in the marketplace.
Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Status in effect bilaterally confers on Zimbabwe preferred status as a destination for Chinese investment capital, aid, skills and other initiatives.
We are now well positioned to tap from both the $100 billion facility announced by China in South Africa a few years ago, and of course from China’s more recent Belt-and-Road Initiative to network the world into one commercial village.
The Forum ob China-Africa Co-operation slated for Shaghai in September 2018, and to which President Mnangagwa is already invited, should allow us to take hard-headed stock.
Key outcomes
Beyond the flow of people, skills and capital, Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Status is a major step towards breaking the jinx of isolation from which Zimbabwe has suffered for nearly a decade since its Land Reform Programme.
Sinosure’s decision to provide cover to Zimbabwe-bound Chinese investment capital, complemented by a decision by a Chinese bank to open shop in Zimbabwe, are key outcomes from the State Visit.
More telling is the preparedness of China to accept trade settlements in Chinese currency, a decision which has far-reaching positive implications for economic interaction between Zimbabwe and China.
Additionally, the decision by CCCC, China’s largest global infrastructure company, to open shop in Zimbabwe is a major milestone and statement of confidence whose tractive value to otherwise dissonant China can hardly be overemphasised.
This is a ringing third-party endorsement for Zimbabwe.
Alongside other infrastructure construction companies, not least those focusing on the long-delayed Kunzvi Dam, on Hwange 7&8 sure to start shortly, on Robert Mugabe International Airport, on road dualisation, on rail expansion and transnational linkages, on construction of Parliament and new Government Complex, “Quad C” will underpin President Mnangagwa’s vision to turn Zimbabwe into a modern-infrastructured, middle-income economy by 2030, a mere 12 years hence.
The third key gain to come out of President Mnangagwa’s State Visit relates to the Chinese offer of an unlimited market to our agricultural produce.
With a population of 1,3 billion, China’s appetite and belly are hard to encompass, much harder to fill.
They need citrus and other fruits from Zimbabwe. They need cotton from Zimbabwe. They need soya from Zimbabwe. They need our meats. They are already buying our tobacco and motivating our tobacco farmers.
What is staggering is that the offer of this vast market comes with substantial commitment to support our agriculture for greater productivity.
China has already availed more money for dam construction. China is offering support for us to turn the more than 10 000 water bodies across the country into irrigation propositions.
Above all, China is ready with inputs and skills, the former coming to us not as exports in finished goods, but as major investments in fertiliser, gas and agricultural equipment manufacturing.
In respect of cotton, the President was able to motivate several Chinese companies that want to sponsor vast cotton fields for feedstock for textile companies which will be set up here to manufacture for global markets.
The Chinese have done as much in Egypt and in Ethiopia.
Special mention
Deliberately, I have shied away from highlighting deals clinched with private companies. Those concerned are better placed to speak to them.
But there is one requiring special mention.
A day before his departure, President Mnangagwa met the owner of Afrochine, the chrome processor already operating just after Selous as one goes to Chegutu.
The investor now wants to develop three other furnaces including one in Mutorashanga and another in Shurugwi.
But these are “smalls” in his investment plans.
The big one for this economy is a steel plant, fashioned after one already operating in Indonesia which employs 20 000 people.
In his own words, Zimbabwe has all the ingredients for such a plant: abundant chrome, abundant iron ore, nickel and abundant and untapped coal for an independent power plant so necessary for such a big, power gulping investment.
But he has been knocking on Government offices for the past three years, to no avail. Still, he didn’t give up on us.
In that 30-minute meeting, the investor was able to walk away with concrete commitments on all his requirements, opening the way for an early start to the project.
Food for stomach
I referred to the above encounter to raise a key component in President Mnangagwa’s challenge in reframing the National Question.
He has to deal with a bureaucracy notorious for its slothfulness, disarticulation and arthritic pace and manner of doing business. Besides, a bureaucracy which has picked the dubious fame of predatoriness.
What the hard nationalistic rhetoric did to us was to mould a bureaucracy full of centurions whose self-view was to guard idle subsoil assets from intending investors, all against begriming poverty.
The out-turn has been paradoxical: a highly mineralised country which is frigid to investors, amidst deepening poverty and social malaise.
Until now our resources were hermetically sealed – a subject for idle, rumbustious boast – ever guarded by a highly efficient “army” of “ragged trousered” nationalists who had no compunction in letting Zimbabweans starve while “feeding” them with the twin alibi and sweet lie of “indigenisation” and “empowerment”.
For that reason, the old dispensation gave Zimbabweans lots of food for thought but hardly any for the stomach, to use the late Achebe’s acerbic phrase.
It is this bureaucratic temperament which has not only put off investors, but has bred a corrupt, anti-business outlook for which we have paid dearly.
And which, too, accounts for the extant overflow of cynicism around any national initiative, threatening to blight all that the current President seeks to do; so that there is no Emerson Mnangagwa – only a Mugabe look-alike.
There is no gainful venture to drum up investments; only another wasteful jaunt recalling years and behaviors gone by!
Swings and roundabouts
There is a dire need for institutional reforms, for new mindsets if this nation has to regain belief in itself again.
Today this frigid beast – the bureaucracy – has to stir, and then be made to function nimbly and honestly.
If not, all will be lost, including the mega-deals just concluded with China.
There are key institutional reforms which beg. There are new mores sorely needed; indeed a new work ethic which must be invented and infused within the bureaucracy.
The President’s emphasis on the rapid results initiative, with its 100-day execution and accountability cycles, is a good start which must gain irrevocable traction.
His zero-tolerance on corruption is a necessary complement.
Above all, there is dire need for institutional reforms – stated thrice – around institutions that handle and interface with foreign investors and foreign investment projects.
I am very clear about one thing: current ministries – both by structure and temperament – cannot be the panacea to this age-old challenge.
We need a new institutional framework, arguably akin to what we saw and met in Rwanda.
There, one supremely executive and overriding institution deals with investors, deals with them from start to finish, all in 24 hours!
This corporatised executive authority led by a CEO who is at par with Cabinet ministers, and who reports directly to Cabinet, passes for a one-stop shop which decides on everything an investor requires to speedily set up shop: from land, policies, laws, by-laws, registration, incentives right down to environmental impact assessments.
It commandeers utilities for various inputs needed by an investor, including factory shells.
Above all, it takes decisions on tax breaks and holidays, including flexibly extending them to allow for enterprise growth.
The guiding philosophy is straightforward: what we miss on the swings, we gain on the roundabouts; what we can’t get now, we get later, or eventually.
There is no Zimra; there is no Finance, Harare City Council or some such hackneyed bureaucratic contraption which shames Whitehall.
Only all these functions melded into one efficient unit that is on the go go.
Bigger picture
This is the new African environment within which Zimbabwe competes for FDI; indeed the new, competitive environment within which she reframes the National Question.
She must believe in herself, making much out of her resource endowments the Almighty has been so generous to give.
She must believe in herself, restoring faith in her leadership, even though broken and betrayed in the past.
Nations go through lows, hit troughs. But the key is to pick themselves up in order to recover.
We cannot do so on gratuitous cynicism deriving from past failures. We can’t do so by concentrating on “smalls” of big national visions and initiatives.
Or by disguising yesterday’s rhetoric of nationalist paranoia into today’s fastidious demand that our leadership remains with us at home, so in suicidal solidarity, we all sink deeper into the slough of despondency as a nation. We have to look at the bigger picture, articulate bigger visions, court bigger players. In China and other nations and concerns of goodwill, we have an opportunity for a fresh start.
Let’s give ourselves another chance.