How Mnangagwa Has Starved Army Using Wicknell
31 October 2024
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The Strategic Grip: How Emmerson Mnangagwa Secured Control Over Zimbabwe’s Military Supply Chain

By Dought Mangai | Comment | Since coming to power in Zimbabwe’s 2017 coup, President Emmerson Mnangagwa has subtly but effectively reinforced his control over the military, tightening his hold through what seems at first glance like administrative restructuring of military procurement and supply chains. In reality, this shift has undermined the military’s autonomy, leaving it dependent on the very government it once supported against former President Robert Mugabe. This analysis delves into Mnangagwa’s strategic shift, the influence of his associates in the military supply chain, and how this may impact Zimbabwe’s future.

Background: The Autonomous Army of the Past

Under Mugabe, the Zimbabwean military operated with a certain level of independence, especially in terms of resource management and procurement. Budgets were allocated to each military department, which could procure food, supplies, and other essentials independently. This autonomy not only ensured that the military could sustain itself but also prevented it from being overtly controlled by the Ministry of Finance or political overseers. This freedom is crucial for any military that must remain robust and reliable, particularly in an environment where political volatility is constant.

Mnangagwa’s Structural Shift: Controlling the Military Supply Chain

Mnangagwa’s ascent to power marked a turning point. By 2022, the government mandated that military supplies would no longer be autonomously sourced. The military was informed that logistical stocks had dwindled, leaving them reliant on government intervention for future supplies. Under the guise of this “emergency,” the responsibility for military procurement was centralized, with the Ministry of Finance now managing all purchasing, effectively removing the military’s autonomy in budgeting and supply chains.

To make matters more complex, the Ministry awarded the military supply contract to a company called Agrifora, backed by Mnangagwa’s close allies, including his sons and controversial businessman Wicknell Chivayo. This effectively centralized military sustenance within Mnangagwa’s inner circle, making the armed forces dependent on Agrifora for rations and supplies. Such centralization ensures that Mnangagwa maintains not just a logistical but also a potentially existential hold over the military.

The Role of Agrifora: Chivayo and Mnangagwa’s Sons’ Influence

Agrifora’s involvement has been contentious. This company, connected to the Mnangagwa family and Chivayo, a figure long associated with government contracts and controversy, now monopolizes the supply chain for the military’s rations. This development raises concerns over the transparency and ethics of the procurement process and creates a substantial conflict of interest. The Ministry of Finance’s approval of this monopoly highlights the merging of private profit with national security, as Mnangagwa’s associates are financially incentivized to maintain the military’s dependence on the administration.

The influence of Agrifora is more than logistical—it is psychological and strategic. By holding the proverbial purse strings, Mnangagwa has ensured that any potential opposition from the military would face significant internal hurdles. If soldiers were to stage a coup, their supply chain, and potentially their survival, would be at risk due to the inherent dependency on Agrifora’s provisions.

Strategic Implications: Security or Vulnerability?

This system creates a paradox within Zimbabwe’s military: although they are charged with protecting the state, they lack the independence to act freely in the event of political instability. The Agrifora-controlled rations make it clear that the military’s sustenance is tightly regulated, so any opposition would be logistically challenging to sustain. Soldiers would find themselves in a precarious situation, with no guarantee of food or resources if they chose to act against Mnangagwa’s government. This is a clear example of Mnangagwa using economic dependency as a political and military weapon, effectively nullifying one of the most significant threats to his power.

The Psychological Grip: Feeding the Army “Hand to Mouth”

Mnangagwa’s grip on military rations goes beyond just physical sustenance—it is a symbol of dominance. By controlling their “bread and butter,” Mnangagwa sends a powerful message to the military: survival is conditional upon loyalty. This dependency curtails any internal momentum for revolt or insubordination, reinforcing Mnangagwa’s position as the linchpin of the state.

Should the military attempt to dissent, they face the immediate risk of resource deprivation, which could be as debilitating as any armed opposition. This strategic control over basic sustenance deters dissent, as soldiers know that challenging Mnangagwa’s authority could mean literal starvation or logistical collapse. In short, Mnangagwa has turned the sustenance of his own military into a political insurance policy.

Long-Term Consequences and Outlook

This control strategy carries deep implications for Zimbabwe’s future. Mnangagwa’s monopolization of military provisions through Agrifora demonstrates a systematic approach to consolidating power, underscoring the fragility of Zimbabwe’s democratic processes. By embedding his family and allies into the military’s logistical structure, Mnangagwa has created a quasi-feudal system within the state apparatus, ensuring that military loyalty is no longer ideological but economically motivated.

Moreover, this strategy may inspire similar tactics in other sectors, where Mnangagwa or his associates might embed themselves into critical supply chains to reinforce political loyalty. This could result in a government where the autonomy of every critical sector—from military to civilian infrastructure—is undermined, leaving the country’s stability inherently tied to Mnangagwa’s rule.


The Strategic Dismantling of Military Independence

Mnangagwa’s calculated control over the Zimbabwean military’s supplies through Agrifora is emblematic of his broader strategy to consolidate power. By tethering the military’s well-being to a company he controls, Mnangagwa has achieved a near-absolute grip over what was once a powerful and autonomous institution. For the Zimbabwean armed forces, the situation presents an existential dilemma: remain compliant under an arrangement where loyalty is rewarded with sustenance, or resist and face the immediate risk of logistical collapse.

The military’s challenge in navigating this new reality reflects a broader issue in Zimbabwe’s political landscape, where state resources are increasingly leveraged for personal power. Mnangagwa’s approach reveals a leader who has learned from the past and is determined to secure his position, not by force alone, but by methodically dismantling the independence of those around him—one ration at a time.