By A Correspondent
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a hopeful 6.0% real GDP growth for Zimbabwe in 2025, positioning the country among Sub-Saharan Africa’s top performers.
However, many economists and analysts are questioning the accuracy of this forecast, pointing out that it fails to account for the country’s ongoing political, economic, and social crises.
The IMF’s forecast, included in the April 2025 World Economic Outlook, highlights Zimbabwe’s alleged recovery, attributing growth to economic stabilization reforms and an uptick in agricultural output.
While these factors may appear promising, critics argue that the IMF’s projection is overly optimistic and ignores the harsh realities Zimbabwe continues to face.
“While the IMF’s forecast may reflect some positive developments, such as improvements in agricultural production and rising mineral exports, it overlooks the deep-rooted structural problems plaguing Zimbabwe,” said Ben Chengetai, a former financial advisor to Morgan Tsvangirai. “The actual situation on the ground is far more dire than the report suggests.”
The IMF cites key drivers of Zimbabwe’s growth, including a rebound in agriculture, increased mineral exports—especially gold and lithium—and improved macroeconomic stability. Yet, inflation remains high, the currency continues to fluctuate uncontrollably, and widespread poverty persists. Zimbabwe’s economic recovery, according to critics, is fragile and lacks a solid foundation.
“The so-called ‘stabilization reforms’ are little more than temporary measures that fail to tackle the underlying causes of economic mismanagement,” said a senior economist based in Harare. “The informal economy remains the backbone of the country, as millions of Zimbabweans are forced to rely on parallel markets for their livelihoods due to the collapse of the formal economy.”
Zimbabwe’s agricultural recovery, which the IMF has praised, depends heavily on favorable weather and government intervention—factors that have often proven unpredictable. The country’s infrastructure, while receiving investment, remains underdeveloped, struggling with chronic power shortages and a dilapidated transport system.
Furthermore, Zimbabwe’s mineral wealth, particularly in lithium, has been touted as a key economic driver. However, critics argue that this sector is being exploited by foreign companies with limited benefits flowing back into the local economy. “Zimbabwe sits on a mineral treasure trove, but its people remain impoverished,” said an economist in Bulawayo. “The profits are siphoned off by multinational corporations with the complicity of the government. This is hardly a recipe for sustainable growth.”
In comparison, larger and more diversified economies such as South Africa (1.0%) and Nigeria (3.0%) are expected to experience much slower growth in 2025. While Zimbabwe’s performance appears favorable when contrasted with these economies, the country’s overreliance on agriculture and mining leaves it vulnerable to global commodity price fluctuations and neglects long-term diversification.
“It’s tempting to highlight Zimbabwe’s relatively strong growth compared to other regional economies, but this growth is built on shaky foundations,” said a political analyst. “Without addressing governance issues, corruption, and macroeconomic stability, these projections are nothing more than wishful thinking.”
The IMF’s forecast places Zimbabwe among the fastest-growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa, tied with Tanzania and just behind regional leaders like Senegal (8.4%) and Rwanda (7.1%). However, the IMF report fails to address the political crisis under President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s government, including allegations of election manipulation, a crackdown on opposition parties, and restrictions on civil liberties. These factors contribute to a lack of investor confidence, as well as further alienating local businesses and international stakeholders.
“Growth projections are only meaningful when they’re based on sustainable economic principles, not the whims of a regime that thrives on political control,” said a senior business leader in Harare. “The IMF’s forecast completely ignores the current political climate, which will undoubtedly undermine any potential for real growth.”
As Zimbabwe approaches the 2025 economic year, the question remains: Can the country truly achieve 6.0% growth, or is the IMF’s projection merely an overly optimistic outlook that disregards the nation’s persistent structural challenges? Many Zimbabweans remain skeptical, given the ongoing economic instability and political turmoil.
While the IMF’s report may highlight some short-term improvements in certain sectors, the broader picture suggests that Zimbabwe’s economic growth remains fragile, vulnerable to being derailed by deep-seated issues that continue to impede sustainable development.